Jefferies: Western Europe food retail sales growth slows to 5.4%

EditorGarrett Cook
Published 03/20/2026, 08:15 AM
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Western Europe tracked food retail sales increased 5.4% in the four weeks ending February 22, decelerating from the prior four-week average of 6.6% and the six-month average of 6.5%, according to a Jefferies analysis.

On a two-year stacked basis, retail sales rose 9.8%, compared to the last three-month average of 11.7% and six-month average of 10.8%.

Volumes increased in four of the nine tracked categories during the period, including yogurt, which rose 5.4%, frozen fish at 3.8%, coffee at 0.5%, and frozen meat at 0.3%. Cereal volumes remained approximately flat.

All nine categories posted sales growth, with coffee leading at 13.3%, followed by yogurt at 7.9%, frozen meat at 7.5%, chocolate at 6.1%, frozen fish at 5.3%, ice cream at 1.2%, sweet biscuits at 0.8%, cereal at 0.8%, and savory snacks at 0.4%.

Average prices increased across all tracked categories. Coffee pricing rose 12.8%, while chocolate prices climbed 10.2%. Frozen meat prices increased 7.1%, ice cream 4.3%, sweet biscuits 2.9%, yogurt 2.5%, frozen fish 1.4%, savory snacks 0.9%, and cereal 0.8%.

Private label brands gained market share in all categories except sweet biscuits during the period. Chocolate private label share recorded the largest gain in the four-week period, followed by coffee and savory snacks.

Coffee demonstrated lower price elasticity compared to chocolate. Coffee sales rose approximately 13.5% with pricing up around 13%, while volumes increased roughly 0.5%, a slight decline from the prior four-week period. Chocolate pricing increased approximately 10%, but volumes fell roughly 4%.

Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) posted mixed volume trends, with ice cream volumes rising more than 20%, while chocolate volumes declined in the high single digits. Nomad Foods (NYSE:NOMD) recorded mid-single digit volume growth in frozen fish and mid-single digit volume declines in frozen meat, though both categories improved from the prior period. Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) cereal volumes grew mid-single digits but decelerated from the prior period. General Mills (NYSE:GIS) ice cream volumes turned positive, growing mid-single digits and gaining dollar share in the total category.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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